Learn to Play Craps - Tips and Strategies: A Load of Crap - Part 3
This is Part 3 in my series that gives a sample of the load of crap (pun intended) from various websites about how to play craps and always win big. Read and learn.
EXCERPT: The body of a website states, "The (name removed) craps strategy will allow you to treat the craps table like going to the bank for a withdrawal. It wins six times out of seven, and is fully guaranteed to win."
ANALYSIS: When reading that website, I immediately focused on the guarantee. At the top of the homepage, where it quickly catches your attention, the seller touts that his winning system is guaranteed. So, I asked myself, "What exactly is the guarantee?" Later down the page, I found it, which states, "I guarantee that you will be satisfied with the (name removed) method, or I'll refund your purchase price in full, if you return the material within 60 days. Study the method, listen to the tape, practice the plays on paper, and try it in the casino. If you are not pleased, just return the material, and I'll refund your money." Although the seller boasts that his system is guaranteed to win, the actual guarantee says nothing at all about winning. The guarantee is simply whether or not you're pleased. He cleverly makes no guarantee that the system will win. Sounds fishy, doesn't it? Also, note that the guarantee requires you to study the material, listen to the tape, practice, and try it in a casino. That could take you well over 60 days to finally conclude that you're not pleased, at which time the guarantee is expired. I suspect that the seller also relies on the fact that people simply forget about the guarantees for anything they buy or they don't bother sending the request for their money back. The seller then states that his system wins six times out of seven, which means it loses only one time in seven. Therefore, he is stating that his system gives a player advantage of about 86% (i.e., 6/7=0.86). Huh? You mean the casino where he plays accepts a player advantage of 86%? I seriously doubt it (and you should, too). I can't help but roll off my chair in hysterical laughter. Absurd! Casinos never accept any player advantage, no matter how slight. The casino always has the advantage--always. If there were something about the game that gave the player even a slight advantage, the casino would change the rules to disallow it and get the advantage back to the casino.
EXCERPT: Moving on, let’s look at another website. I find this guy's sales approach quite odd. He states at the very top of his homepage, "If you are like me, you've purchased a book or two and maybe a winning strategy off the Internet that was supposed to make you rich at the craps tables. Well, I'm here to tell you that there are no winning craps strategies! The house always has the advantage on all craps bets and strategies. But, I am here to tell you that you CAN beat the house at the craps tables using my (name removed) craps strategy, which is much, much more than a simple betting strategy." You'll find his guarantee later down the homepage, which states, "60 Day 100% Satisfaction Money Back Guarantee. After trying my (name removed) craps strategy, if you do not agree that you will make money using the (name removed) system, just ask for a refund. No questions asked. This allows you to virtually try my system for free knowing that you can easily get a no hassles refund whenever you want." Then, he later states, "The basic (name removed) system isn't anything new. It's just making $30 place bets on the 6 and 8, but with a special twist that changes it from a system with a house advantage of 1.52% to an uncalculatable figure somewhere between 1.52% and 0%."
ANALYSIS: I find his sales approach odd because he immediately states that there's no such thing as a winning craps system, and then tries to sell you his winning system. Huh? That doesn't make sense, does it? Tell a potential customer that no winning exists, and then try to sell that same customer a winning system. Very odd, indeed. Note that he emphasizes the word "can" with capital letters ("I am here to tell you that you CAN beat the house…"), instead of using the word "will." This guy apparently at least tries to be careful about his written claims by using "can" instead of "will." Any dopey system "can" win on some rolls, but over the long-term, its wins will never exceed the house's wins. The house always has the statistical advantage and will always win more than it loses over the long-term. Now, let's look at his guarantee. As usual, it doesn't guarantee that the system will win over the long-term. Instead, you get your money back if you're unhappy--no mention of any guarantee that the system will be a long-term winner. The kicker is that the buyer only has 60 days for a refund. What's with the 60-day limitation? I don't understand why that limitation is imposed, or even mentioned as part of the guarantee. If the system consistently wins hundreds or thousands of dollars in hours (as the so-called testimonials claim), then one would think that all buyers would be always totally satisfied; therefore, there would be no need for the 60-day limitation. Actually, if everyone always won, there would be no need for any guarantee at all, right? Then there's his odd statement that his unique system "...changes it from a system with a house advantage of 1.52% to an uncalculatable figure somewhere between 1.52% and 0%." He must not be very good at math because all betting systems (i.e., combinations and patterns of various bets) can be calculated in terms of house advantage. I guess he was too lazy to figure it out. Whatever the case, this guy has zero credibility in my opinion. I recommend that you stay far away from this guy and his "winning" system.
Learn from this article and my other articles in the series. Once and for all, get it through your head that craps is designed for you to lose. No system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist that will produce long-term gains for the player. Don’t be a sucker. There's only one way you can hope to win--by understanding the statistical phenomenon called "variance." The secret to craps is in understanding variance, how to recognize it, and how to take advantage of it when it's in your favor. Playing smart and recognizing variance is your only hope of optimizing your fun without losing your shirt. Learn to play in reality, not in a fantasyland of false hope.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
W. Enslen is a reliability engineer who routinely works with statistics. Having played and analyzed casino craps for 30 years, he has compiled his winning secrets in a new Ebook, which you can sample at Learn to Play Casino Craps. Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play casino craps in reality instead of a Fantasyland of false hope.