Stocks at a 12-year Low; Time to Jump in?

Mar 3
09:02

2009

Michael Lombardi

Michael Lombardi

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As the government goes along its merry way, pouring trillions of dollars into the economy, there are those that feel we will soon see the benefits of ...

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As the government goes along its merry way,Stocks at a 12-year Low; Time to Jump in? Articles pouring trillions of dollars into the economy, there are those that feel we will soon see the benefits of all the government bailout programs. The second camp believes that the efforts of the government in spending trillions of taxpayers' dollars are futile, a waste of money.

My beliefs are as follows: at this point, many of the government bailout programs are a waste of taxpayers' money. While the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at historically low levels and expanding the money supply (all good), the government is throwing good money after bad. Case in point is AIG. After giving the insurer $120 billion, the government announced this morning that it needs to give AIG another $30.0 billion.

Depending on which figures you believe, the S&P500 is said to have operational annual earnings of $50.00. This would give the index a price/earnings ratio of 14. Market veterans know that bear markets end when price/earnings multiples are in the single digits. While I hate to be the bearer of bad news, the S&P500 has at least another 40% risk on the downside.

As for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, in case you missed it, the Dow Jones removed all stocks in its bellwether index that trade below $10.00. Sheer manipulation. All those sick banks trading below $10.00 are off the Dow. Otherwise, we would be seeing a Dow at a much lower level than today, likely in the 6,000 to 5,000 level.

I would continue to stay away from the big stocks. By "big" I mean the large multinational American corporations. When the economy turns against a large corporation, that corporation needs time to adjust its operations to the economic environment around it (i.e. the layoffs and downsizing take time to implement). There are great stock bargains developing in the small-cap market, where many stocks are now trading at single-digit price/earnings multiples. Many studies have proven that long-term investors do considerably better with special situation small-cap stocks than with the large, big-cap stocks.

** Michael's Personal Notes:

I'm getting more and more concerned that the U.S. is following the example of Japan's failed effort to save the banks. The Obama Administration believes in saving the big American banks because of fear that public confidence in the financial system would be wiped out if the big banks go under. The hard truth is that the banks that cannot survive must go under with only their customer deposits saved by the government. More on this in the next couple of days.

** Where the Market Stands:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down 19.5% for the year (after a 35% loss in 2008). It takes 7.5 ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Index, compared to 44 ounces at the start of this decade. After coming off one of the worst Februarys in history, the stock market is severely oversold. A stock market this oversold, that day after day fails to rally, is a very sick stock market.

** What He Said:

"I've been pushing gold bullion and gold shares for over a year now. Back in January 2002, I personally started buying gold shares." Michael Lombardi, in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, December 13, 2002. Gold bullion was trading at under $300.00 an ounce when Michael first started recommending gold-related investments in 2002 (gold today trades at $950.00). Many gold stocks recommended in Michael's advisories gained in excess of 100%.

Profit Confidential

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