Bank of America mortgage rates have flirted with the 5% level for almost two months but have not broken below it yet. The Fed is going to stop buying US Treasuries by the end of September; is this the last chance to see average mortgage rates below 5%?
Bank of America mortgage rates have been in a tight range between 5% and 5.5% for almost two months now. Every time we see average mortgage rates drop to near 5% there is a strong increase in the 10 year treasury yield which sends rates much higher. As soon as mortgage interest rates get close to 5.5% the Federal Reserve Bank makes it a point to announce that they are going to do whatever it takes to keep rates near historic lows.
After the Fed speeches, rates drop all the way back down to 5% until we repeat the process. This has been happening since the beginning of July and it looks like it is going to stay that way until the end of September 2009. At the end of September 2009 the Federal Reserve Bank plans to stop buying US Treasuries altogether. For the last eight months, the Fed has been buying up treasuries to help push interest rates lower. Now that they are stopping this, it will be very interesting to see how treasury yields react.
If treasury yields react the way that most people think, we are going to see a strong run up in the 10 year treasury rate yield which will bring mortgage rates right along with it. The 10 year yield was in a strong up trend for much of 2009 but it seems to be waning lately which has been one of the main reasons that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage has stayed relatively low. That might not be the case for much longer.
