Are economic times getting better? According to recent news reports they are. Here's just a sampling of the many positive economic headlines we've bee...
Are economic times getting better? According to recent news reports they are. Here's just a sampling of the many positive economic headlines we've been exposed to in the past couple of weeks:
Intel believes PC sales bottomed out last yearBanks profits spur confidenceSurprise jump in U.S. home salesU.S. durable orders unexpectedly jumpWells Fargo predicts record $3 billion first quarter profitGlobal confidence climbsU.S. new home sales rise unexpectedlyGoldman Sachs to sell $5 billion in stock
The financial news is starting to feel encouraging. People are starting to feel better about the economy. All that seems to lurk is the pending bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler (which the stock market has already discounted). Restaurants are starting to see people coming back,
stock brokerage houses are opening up accounts again (TD Waterhouse has seen a boom in new accounts being opened).
But don't let these positive news reports fool you, dear reader. Significant damage has been done to our economy over the past 24 months. Job losses will continue and companies will still be closing shop for the remainder of 2009. Yes, the pace of economic decline may have decelerated, but the economic damage is far-reaching.
The stock market tells the truth. And at 30 times earnings, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is telling us that stocks are still very overvalued. What would happen if the stock market moved back below its March 2009 lows? Dreams would be shattered again. Would consumer and investor pessimism return? Yes, with a vengeance. Once this bear market rally is out of the way, we will see.
Michael's Personal Notes:
This morning, the CEO of Fiat SpA said he would walk away from the Chrysler deal if Chrysler did not secure additional significant labor savings by the end of the month. Fiat wants to see Chrysler's labor costs at the same as German and Japanese autoworkers at U.S. plants. In my mind, the best thing for Fiat to do right now is to walk away from the deal. Chrysler is on life support provided by the U.S. and Canadian governments...billions of our tax dollars gone to subsidize bad management decisions that have accumulated over the years. The Fiat brand is doing quite well. Why risk it via a partnership with Chrysler? Fiat only needs to look at the mistakes of Daimler AG and its failed relationship with Chrysler to see its own future.
Where the Stock Market Stands:
Stocks' "bear market rally" running out of steam? I'm not so convinced. In fact, I believe the bear is looking for any excuse to move the market higher and bring investors back in. At its peak in April, the market had rallied only 26% from its 2009 low. I would have expected to see the bear market rally take stocks up between 33% and 50% from their low. After all, what is the use of a bear market rally if investors are not brought back into the market? The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 10% so far this year.
What He Said:
"'Home sales down 8.4%, could be the bottom,' read the headline in last Friday's 'USA Today.' What do they know that I don't? They know what realtors and their associations tell them and that's about it. Unfortunately, the real estate news is predominately written by reporters -- not real estate investors with years of experience to share. The hard facts about the real estate market in the U.S. are truly scary. How can the U.S. economy escape the hard landing in U.S. home prices? As we'll soon find out, it simply can't!" Michael Lombardi in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, January 31, 2007. While the popular media was predicting a bottoming of the real estate market in 2007, Michael was preparing his readers for the worst of times ahead.
Profit Confidential
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