I'm sensing some optimism returning to the stock markets after a three-day rally, but I'm not convinced that the current rally will be sustainable giv...
I'm sensing some optimism returning to the stock markets after a three-day rally,
but I'm not convinced that the current rally will be sustainable given the abundance of uncertainties. The reality is that the mini streak is largely due to an extreme oversold condition along with some increased confidence towards the banking sector. There was so much pessimism in stocks that seeing this recent rally should not be a surprise. The question will be whether stocks will react should markets trend higher. I feel there will be more profit taking as stocks move higher.
Some view the break of the DOW at 7,000 on Thursday as a catalyst, but I continue to feel that stocks will trade sideways in the near term, so we will likely see another break below 7,000 and could see a test of the decade low. Markets simply do not reverse course overnight. The recent bounce off multi-year lows is positive, but again this current mini-rally could simply be a bear market rally and we could see stocks reverse course.
In the banking sector, Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE/C) suggested that it does not need any further government funds for now. The stock has rallied from a recent low of $0.97 to over $1.65 in a few days, making it a favorite of day and swing traders. I expect this pattern to continue, as the stock -- despite being in the DOW 30 -- is now a speculative trade. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC) also said that it could report profits in 2009. Clearly the news could be a sign the financial sector is improving, but there remains the issue of the toxic assets on the balance sheets of many of the banks. Until the toxic assets are dealt with, there will continue to be uncertainties.
Since I'm talking about the DOW, the index is still one of the most followed measures of corporate America. But should it be? With the backlash in the market, many DOW stocks are currently trading at levels not seen in many decades. There are now five DOW stocks trading below $5.00 a share: Citigroup, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA), Bank of America, General Electric Company (NYSE/GE), and General Motors Corporation (NYSE/GM). Once the core of a widow's portfolio, these five stocks are now speculative and have become high-volume trading stocks. The worry is that a remix of the DOW 30 could see these five stocks dropped, which would drive down the price. If you are an active trader, look at trading these stocks.
Before I sign off, let me say something about rogue money manager Bernard Madoff, who ripped off over $50.0 billion in the largest Ponzi scheme. To the delight of many, including myself, he was immediately ordered to jail on Thursday and denied bail. No longer able to go back to his $7.0-million condo, he spent the night in a seven-by-eight-foot cell. The man got what he deserves, but how the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) failed to recognize his plot despite many who came forth is simply astounding and unbelievable. The SEC is responsible for allowing the scam to work and, without any trust in the regulatory system, these kinds of crimes will continue.
Have fun in prison Bernie! Enjoy the cuisine, amenities, and company. Think about your victims and how you have destroyed their lives. You definitely will have plenty of time to reflect.
Profit Confidential
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