Finding Cycles in the Stock Market Using Ancient Techniques
There are many physical cycles we could analyze that influence human behavior as it relates to the stock market. As an exercise, let's see if we can find any truth to stock market cycles that are based around the lunar month (from new moon to new moon).
Much has been written about various cycles in the stock market, other commodities and investments. One very famous example is the Delta Phenomenon, a trading book that sold huge quantities at $175 per copy (and some for many many times that). The basic idea has to do with lunar cycles.
Lunar cycles? Stock market? About now, I can hear you saying, "what a bunch of #^$%.", but bear with me because, if you are of the hard core left brained approach to such things, I would like to point out that even the Atlanta Federal Reserve has published a white paper on the geomagnetic influences on stock market cycles (http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AFD46B63-2852-4812-BE83E6D0C777F4BF&method=display).
I have done a tremendous amount of research in this area, devoting several years of my life to this very topic. Much new research in astrophysics is revealing we really live in a very electric universe (http://www.thunderbolts.info/home.htm). I have been able to achieve winning percentages in the 90% range on longer time frames using geomagnetic data to time the stock market. So, don't knock it til you try it ;-)
Modern world culture has largely abandoned the use of what our forefathers commonly used, and that is the lunar calendar. Many ancient cultures, such as the Chinese or those of the Jewish faith, for example, still retain this tradition. Many Buddhist traditions carry certain days of the lunar month as having certain significance. This is also true in Indian writings such as the Vedas.
Is there some wisdom to counting out events according to lunar cycles instead of only solar ones as we do here in the west? Does reliance on a purely solar calendar hide things from us that would otherwise be obvious on another interval? I certainly think it does. After all, the moon, for example, surely influences fluid flow, and we are largely made, of water. The moon and sun also significantly influence charges on the ionosphere that impact our environment. So, these things all tie together. As mentioned, physics is now coming to find more detailed reasons to believe electromagnetism and gravity are really opposite sides of the same coin. For more on this, you might enjoy the articles of Myles Mathis at http://www.milesmathis.com/
There are many physical cycles we could analyze that influence human behavior as it relates to the stock market. As an exercise, let's see if we can find any truth to stock market cycles that are based around the lunar month (from new moon to new moon). There are many such cycles we could analyze, but this one will suffice to show some interesting cycles and, how one might go about discovering them. Then, you can write me to tell me what you have found;-)
To start with, in trying to find the data to do these tests, I quickly found there was no commercially available software that could export any reasonable amount of data. So I developed my own. I call it the "Astro Data Generator." It will generate any data you need for just about any planetary body in the solar system (ie. Declination , longitude, speed and distance etc.).
The new moon is simply an event that occurs when the sun and the moon rise at the same time. So I export data for the sun and moon and use my spreadsheet to identify when they cross. Then, from that point, I will count forward, buying and selling the S&P 500 (the best example of the tradable US stock market as a whole) at each point (daily) in the cycle.
There is an excellent bias around purchasing the 23rd or 24th day of the lunar month and holding into the 4th day of the lunar month. We can also see a bias as follows:
5th-14th short, 15-17 long and 18-21 short. As you can see, there are clearly cycles present here. In fact, this particular end of month buying and carrying over into the new month bias is well known on a calendar basis. However, I have never seen a study done identifying an end of lunar month pattern like we have done here. It is a unique study. It is often reasoned that this solar calendar effect is due to "window dressing" by fund managers to make their portfolios look better. Seeing this lunar bias makes me wonder whether it is in fact something altogether different. To get to the bottom of it would require more research that is beyond the scope of this article. This is certainly not trading advice at this point. For example, to turn this into a tradable pattern, I would do some statistical analysis to see the distribution of trades. Either way, it tells us that much more about human behavioral (stock market) cycles that, could themselves be driven by external forces that are cyclical themselves. Research in the area of stock market cycles that are driven by other external phenomena is a very fruitful area of research that can lead to substantial benefit. Hopefully the future will bring more thoughtful minds into this arena.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Rob Mitchell is co-owner, researcher and head trader at EminiForecaster.com , an internet website specializing in cyclical stock index swing trading. For more articles like this visit my site