There is now a new Commander-in-Chief at the White House, with President Barack Obama becoming the 44th President of the United States, and so begins ...
There is now a new Commander-in-Chief at the White House,
with President Barack Obama becoming the 44th President of the United States, and so begins a new four-year leadership. Yet despite all the optimism for the new President and his plans for economic renewal, the investment climate continues to be highlighted by crisis in the economy, and housing and jobs sectors, along with the growing risk of instability in the global financial markets.
The stability of the global and U.S. financial system will need to be addressed immediately by President Obama to avert a deeper recession. Obama needs to get the much-needed funds flowing to the economy and to achieve swift approval for his proposed $825-billion infrastructure program. The reality is that the global banking crisis is quickly becoming a major concern that could further drive global economies into a deeper crisis. After the recent announcement of a $41.3-billion loss by the Royal Bank of Scotland, we fear that, should bank weakness surface in China, this could set off some bells and drive stock markets lower. There has already been some selling of Chinese bank holdings by foreign investors in the recent months.
In my opinion, the current investment climate is far worse than both the crash in 1987 and 2000. Not since the Great Depression has the market risk looked so bad. Everywhere you look, there are major issues to be ironed out. The problems are not country-specific, but are spreading through the major world economies, and this cannot be good.
Despite his inauguration speech filled with hope, President Obama will need to begin his plans to revive the struggling U.S. economy immediately in order to avoid a long and harsh recession. Every day in the news we are seeing major layoff announcements across the nation -- and we expect this to only worsen, as the recession continues and gains strength.
General Motors Corporation (NYSE/GM) just came out and said it would run out of cash well before March 31 if it does not get the second installment of $5.4 billion after receiving $4.0 billion already. GM has until February 17 to submit its plan for viability in the market or risk not getting any further funds, which would likely drive the company into bankruptcy protection.
As we near the end of January, the outlook for stocks in 2009 is not encouraging, as we will likely see another down year unless the economy and the other key factors such as housing and jobs begin to improve. Unless this happens, there will be little incentive for consumers to spend.
The outlook for the global economies does not look promising. The oil futures market is indicating continued declines in demand given the downward move in oil prices. Global manufacturing is falling in the face of lower demand for goods, and this will drive down the demand for oil.
At this point, the blue-chip DOW has broken below 8,000 and is within 600-points of its multi-year lows, down nearly 10% so far. The S&P 500 is also on the verge of breaking below 800 with an 11% loss. The worst performer early on in 2009 is the small-cap Russell 2000, a play on the economy, down over 13%.
Profit Confidential
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