Interest Rate Forecast for the Second Half of 2009

The interest rate forecast for the rest of 2009 will change the way many people feel about borrowing money.  If interest rates go higher, it will be likely that we see home prices drop and the economy could get even worse.  This is very likely as the 10 year treasury rate has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year.  We are currently at the bottom of the trend channel and it looks as if the 10 year could go higher, much higher, before the end of July. 

If the trend of the 10 year is broken to the downside, we could very well see much lower rates, but does that mean the economy is getting better.  The idea of borrowing money at extremely low repayment levels is very alluring but do consumers even want to borrow money at this point.  Getting the best fixed rate mortgage is something that is very important to many Americans right now, but some are not willing to take the risk of buying a home in the current economic crisis. 

Ultimately, the interest rate forecast for the second half of 2009 will be determined by the 10 year treasury rate.  If the 10 year continues in its upward channel, we are likely to see mortgage rates higher over the next six months.  If we see a breakdown of that trend and the 10 year treasury rate heads back down to 3%, we could see historic lows for overall rates.  It will be very interesting to see what happens with this trend over the next few weeks.