Mortgage Rate Trends Predicting Low Mortgage Rates?

Many analysts believe that the recent downward mortgage rate trend has been broken.  When you look at a long term chart of rates, it is very obvious to see that they have been going down for over two decades.  It is hard to compare the early 1980s to any time in recent history as there was hyperinflation in the United States and home loan rates were above 16%.  This is highly unlikely to ever happen again, but if the Federal Reserve continues to spend money, we very well may try to test that level.

Mortgage news has continue to deliver the current story of the 10 year treasury rate correlating to the 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  If you look at a long term chart, since 1971, you will see that there is a strong relationship between the two.  There are very few times in this short history that the two sets of numbers separated in a large way.  With this being known, one would think that they would go in tandem either up or down.  Since the beginning of 2009, the 10 year has been in a strong uptrend which has not been the case for overall rates.  The mortgage rates trend continued down. 

At the end of May and the beginning of June that all changed as mortgage rates jumped enormously to coincide with the 10 year treasury rate.  Over the last week we have seen the 10 year treasury rate pull back quite a bit, so one would think that rates would do the same.  This would mean that the overall downward trend in mortgage rates remains intact.  Only time will tell.