Overinflation Has Caused A Real Estate Bubble In Canada

Contingent on who you question, you will discover varying viewpoints on when and how the Canadian housing market will calm down from its latest spectacular rise. As specified by the story released this month in the "Globe and Mail," TD Bank frankly predicts that by the later half of 2011, housing values will drop 2.9 percent, but not until they experience a 9% climb in value over 2009 values. However economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets is more optimistic, informing "The Montreal Gazette" that the overvaluation that caused the real estate bubble will just affect big cities, and should not cause the sort of nationwide collapse expected in the US market. One thing they both appear to concur on, however, is that the Canadian real estate market is on course for a slowing trend -- the question is simply how much and when.As Guatieri pointed out, today's values for average houses in Vancouver or Toronto -- around $700,000 -- is coming close to 10 times the homeowner's income, but that in a normal market "a more normal price is about four or five times income". Although TD Bank had at first predicted 1.6% increases in 2011, this kind of real estate hyper inflation in the midst of economic recovery has actually compromised the market, and they are already seeing the signs of cooling this year derived from the rise of new home starts and new listings. Areas like Mississauga are currently experiencing an increase in new Mississauga condominiums but sales could start to decline.But TD did need to acknowledge in their interview with "The Vancouver Sun" that their 2009 projections were short, because they did not anticipate "a move by buyers and sellers to pre-empt regulatory and interest-rate changes" that resulted in a sharp first quarter surge in housing sales. The looming harmonized sales tax due to take effect in July in Ontario and British Columbia certainly impacted markets in those provinces. The trend has affected financing costs already, with the Bank of Canada believed to raise their overnight target rate in June or July from the record breaking low of 0.25 percent. More expensive borrowing rates should act on cottage regions with deduced prices for places such as Wasaga Beach real estate and this could constitute an opportunity for purchasers.As family incomes catch up with the level of inflation -- an astounding 8 percent over the past 8 years -- TD predicts that overvalued real estate prices will continue to fall from 15 to 10 percent by the last part of next year.  This is bolstered by a decline in MLS sales, which as well includes Toronto MLS listings, over the last 6 months that the Canadian Real Estate Association has noticed. The sole debate that is on the table is what impact the lofty prices will have on the housing market as a whole in the near term and in the future.Gauthier describes his forecasts are a result of the "stronger supply response," and that the "market balance is now expected to be somewhat softer next year, consistent with market conditions more favourable to potential buyers and a mild depreciation in home values". However Guatieri is not satisfied that prices will indeed fall, but instead will just slow down sufficiently to adapt after the current escalations. Gauthier and Guatieri both perceive indicators, however, that no matter when it arrives, the cooling shift will be short lived, and that the average home price should naturally come back to normal market value within the next 3 years.