Recession rhetoric beginning to change

Since the beginning of the recession any survey, data or study which suggested improving fortunes or an upturn in any sector has been quickly downplayed. “Long term conditions will still be particularly tough,” “We are still yet to hit to the bottom,” “One month increases happened at the height of the last recession.” Sound familiar?

It should do, and, for the most part, that guarded pessimism has been entirely correct. After all, vested interest or not, nobody is going to proclaim a minor increase in buyer enthusiasm in the mortgage market, for example, as the saving grace for the economy. Not while the credit, car, loan and pension markets are imploding, anyway.

However, in recent weeks slight improvements have become evident in a number of sectors. In turn, the quotes behind the figures have become more optimistic. There is still caution, as nobody wants to be the first to proclaim the recession over and be left with egg on their face, but there does appear to be a slight but noticeable confidence that things are starting to turn.

To illustrate, reacting to the figures that showed mortgage advisers are more confident about their prospects than they have been for a year, Legal & General’s director of housing, Stephen Smith commented: “Might these predictions of green shoots be coming true? It seems that house price falls have slowed, as have falls in mortgage approvals and more and more evidence suggests that the housing market is over the worst. Our advisers certainly seem to think so.”

Or how about the chief economist of Lloyds TSB, Trevor Williams, who reacted to the news that UK businesses are more confident of their future prospects than they have been for a year by saying: “While it would be premature to talk of an end to the recession, we should be careful not to overlook the significance of growing confidence we are witnessing amongst businesses.”

He went on: “Confidence is always the foundation on which the recovery is built. We’ve now seen three months of consecutive months of growing optimism amongst UK businesses, and if this persists over the coming months, the recovery should not be too far behind.”

Since the beginning of the month reports and surveys have also concluded that house prices increased in May, mortgage brokers have forecasted positive growth for the first time in 18 months, consumer confidence is at its highest point since November last year, investor confidence is returning, lending to small businesses has increased again and house buyer interest growing.

If this slow but steady improvement continues across many sectors in the UK, we can expect the more and more people to stick their heads above the parapet, saying that we may be finally beginning to work our way out of the recession. Concerted improvement will be the key - similar figures next month, the month after and the month after that will add weight to such sentiments - but it is certainly a start.