Did you catch President Obama's televised speech the other night when made reference to how strong the U.S. dollar remains? Treasury Secretary Timothy...
Did you catch President Obama's televised speech the other night when made reference to how strong the U.S. dollar remains? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also positive on the U.S. dollar,
saying yesterday that the greenback remains the world's reserve currency.
A one-paragraph history of the rise of the American currency for my readers:
After World War II, and the world witnessing firsthand the military supremacy of the United States, American dollars became in huge demand throughout the world. (Historically, the country with the greatest military might has always had the strongest currency.) As the American economic machine boomed after World War II, many countries parted with gold as their reserve currency and adopted the U.S. dollar as their reserve. President Nixon made it official, effectively asking why a currency should be backed by gold when they can have American dollars.
Well, that was back then, when the U.S. was a creditor nation (which means other countries owed the U.S. more than the U.S. owed them). Today, it is a very different situation. In less than half a century, America has become a huge debtor nation (it owes other countries more money than is it owed).
I believe the collapse of the American dollar (in value against other world currencies) is only an inevitable matter of time...and that time is getting closer each passing day. I'm not being unpatriotic, I'm being realistic. History has shown that currencies that become backed by increasing debt eventually fall. Ask the British, the Spanish, the Italians, and the French...their histories know all about it.
So, the next shoe to drop in this economy, in my opinion, will be the U.S. dollar. And when that shoe falls, it will have huge negative ramifications for the bond market...a domino effect. Next issue: why bonds are becoming risky.
Michael's Personal Notes:
I'm hearing more and more about civil unrest in Europe in the wake of the economic meltdown. According to one report, in France, employees are holding managers hostage, demanding more money in their severance packages. Frankly, I'm surprised that we are not seeing more of this kind of aggression here in America. Unfortunately, it may be only a matter of time, as dismissed employees come to grip with the realization that most will not be able to replace the money they once made.
Thank you to all my readers who have signed up for my new "Michael's Monday Morning Profit Forecaster." I've been overwhelmed and flattered by the response. The first issue will be published April 6. In case you missed it, you can learn more here:
http://www.lombardipublishing.com/ads/profit_forecaster/index.asp
Where the Market Stands:
A shrinking 12.7%...that's how much the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down for the year. Interesting that it has been the NASDAQ that has recouped its yearly loss the fastest of all the major stock indices. The NASDAQ is less than 100 points away from regaining all its 2009 losses. The tech-heavy NASDAQ was hit hard when the tech bubble bust in late 1999. Ten long years and the NASDAQ is still down 70% from its 1999 high -- an appropriate reminder of just how long bear markets can go on for all those analysts turning bullish these days.
What He Said:
"As a reader, you're aware I'm not a Greenspan fan. In the years that lie ahead, I believe we (and our children) may pay dearly for the debt bubble Greenspan created during his tenure as head of the U.S. Federal Reserve." Michael Lombardi in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, March 20, 2006.
"A low savings rate was eventually blamed for the length of the Great Depression. Consumers just didn't have enough money to spend their way of the Depression. With today's savings rate being so low, a recession could have a profoundly negative effect on over-extended consumers." Michael Lombardi, PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, March 26, 2006. Michael started talking about and predicting the financial catastrophe we began experiencing in 2008 long before anyone else.
Profit Confidential
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