Just back from Miami last night, here are my observations on the city that many believe started the condo boom (that Lehman Brothers helped finance) a...
Just back from Miami last night,
here are my observations on the city that many believe started the condo boom (that Lehman Brothers helped finance) and that is now enduring one of the biggest real estate busts in U.S. history:
The higher-end condo buildings continue to rise. The Regency across from the world-famous Bal Harbor Shops in Bal Harbor, Florida, is rising quickly. The Fountain Blue in Miami had a sold-out grand opening evening celebrating its $1.0-billion-dollar renovation.
It's the lower-end, non-prime location condo buildings that are experiencing the nightmare. It is sad to see cranes sitting atop half-completed buildings. As buyers pulled out of these second-tier condo buildings, the banks pulled the financing, and so construction has simply stopped.
Deals? There are plenty of them for these types of secondary location properties. A two-bedroom condo on the beach in North Miami that sold for $405,000 in 2007 is now for sale by the bank for $299,000. In Brickell, one of the hottest areas in downtown Miami, a two-bedroom that sold for $600,000 in 2006 is for sale by the bank for $205,000. A gorgeous five-bedroom, 6,000-square-foot penthouse in booming Aventura, which sold for $2.4 million in 2007, is for sale by the bank for $1.25 million -- about $200.00 a foot.
In real estate, it's location, location, location. And the buildings in Miami that are in the best location (example, ocean front) and at the higher end of the market are the ones suffering the least from the economic downturn.
Strip plaza retail is dead. For lease signs are popping up everywhere. But the indoor malls continue to do a brisk business. Some stores are closing in the malls, but they are being replaced by new outlets just as quickly. It is the specialty strip plaza retail stores that are closing or suffering the most.
As for restaurants, the story is the same as it is for the condos. Those with a good reputation, in prime locations, are as busy as ever. Secondary quality restaurants in non-prime locations are the ones that are suffering the most.
My take on it all: this economic downturn has hit the real estate speculators and middle class the most. Those speculators who bought at the height of the real estate boom in second-tier buildings with lots of speculation are the ones left holding the bag. The blue-collar worker that bought a new home with more financing than they could really afford is in trouble. But the smart white-collar, higher-end consumers and investors are close to escaping the real estate downturn and credit crisis with only minor injury. They are out spending money at the malls and the restaurants and are even buying real estate at great prices...adding to their wealth at a time when the speculators and blue-collar workers are suffering the most.
Profit Confidential
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