Trading Talk – French Open

One of the greatest ever rivalries in sport has been given a boost after Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal in the Madrid Open, and tennis spread bettors have been given a bit more to think about in the run up to the French Open. Most, including Sporting Index’s traders, will have been surprised by Rafa’s defeat, although buyers of his outright index spread for Roland Garros will not feel too worried. That loss was only the Spaniard’s fifth on clay in 155 matches since 2005. Buyers of Federer’s outright index for the tournament will of course be impressed by his victory and the confidence that he will take to France as a result.

The irrepressible Nadal has not lost a single match at Roland Garros since 2004, having beaten his arch rival Roger Federer in the last three finals. If the outcome in Madrid forbids any confident spread betting on the top two players in the world, punters may decide to look elsewhere, and spread betting interest is sure to be high in Andy Murray, who recently climbed to number three in the rankings. Sellers of his spread will however remind us of his surprise quarter-final defeat in Madrid and a disappointing third-round exit at Roland Garros last year.

The beauty of spread betting means punters do not have to call an outright result, but can bet on a number of aspects of a given match including total game supremacy. Looking to previous finals, in the Rafa era (2005 onwards), three of the four finals were won in four sets, with last year’s victory achieved in straight sets. The average number of games in finals in this period is 34.25, although spread sellers will be encouraged by last year’s one-sided match - Federer only managed to claim four games in the whole match, and it took just 22 games for Rafa to earn his fourth title. Buyers or sellers of the games supremacy spread for the men’s final will note that Nadal’s supremacy over Fed in 2008 was an emphatic 14 games. He won just 6 more games than Federer in the 2007 final and only three more in 2006.

After Justine Henin’s domination of the French Open ladies’ competition in the naughties, it is refreshing to see that any number of women could be seriously considered for the 2009 title. Last year’s runner-up Dinara Safina has since climbed to the top of the WTA rankings, and buyers of her outright index spread will hope she can go one better this year. Buyers of the Williams sisters’ spread will be encouraged that both have had a strong year, but spread sellers will note that neither has appeared in the final at Roland Garros since they faced each other seven years ago. Game supremacy spread bettors should be aware that the average supremacy in the women’s final over the last five years is 7.4 and the highest spread make-up in that period is a hefty 10 games, when Henin destroyed crowd favourite Mary Pierce in 2005.