What You Can Learn From My Retired Friend

The bear market for stocks has been very hard on small- and micro-cap stocks. Just pull up a one-year chart on the Russell 2000 Index and you'll see how significantly it broke through its November low of last year. The recent strength in large-cap stocks is well deserved, but the small-caps do look like they're lagging behind the market.

In his interview on CNBC the other day, Warren Buffett said that the economy has fallen off a cliff. More importantly, he noted again that, from what he's seeing, consumer behavior has changed fundamentally and that a more frugal consumer is here to stay. I completely agree with that assessment and I think it also applies to the stock market.

I believe investor behavior has also changed for good and that there is no longer the enthusiasm for high-risk, small- and micro-cap investment opportunities. Even when the stock market recovers, I think investors will be much less likely to be speculators anymore. Investors will instead prefer to consider more solid businesses that pay dividends.

It's a back-to-the-basics economic theme that will define our time for at least the next decade. Increased savings, paying down debt, more responsible investing...these are just some of the trends that are beginning to emerge.

As my retired parents learned, even owning blue-chip stocks can be a risky strategy. The thing that I've learned about the stock market is exactly the opposite of what financial planners and investment advisors try to tell you. I've learned that, when owning stocks, timing is everything. As an investor, getting the business cycle and the stock market cycle correct is the fundamental determining factor on the kind of returns your equity investments will earn. If you're a retiree right now and you're counting on your stock market investments for the immediate future, you're in a real pickle.

A good friend of my family is a retiree. She's accumulated a small six-figure nest egg that was mostly invested in the stock market. Part of this nest egg was money inherited from her father. Along with her pension, she uses the income this money generates to travel and live her life. Getting close to 80 years of age, she got very upset when the stock market collapsed last autumn and she got mad at herself for not taking any action beforehand. She doesn't actually need the money that she's saved over her entire life in order to sustain herself in her apartment. But she does need that money to live the life that she wants to live. She still wants to travel and entertain friends and she decided that she just couldn't handle the volatility in her investments anymore. After the stock market collapsed in early October last year, she took an up day in the markets and cashed out of everything. For her, cash is now king. As she puts it, "By the time the stock market comes back, I may not be around to see it, so why worry about it anymore?"

Have you ever had something good happen to you because you were at the right place at the right time? Being a successful investor requires the same analogy. Successful investing (in stocks or other securities) is all about being in the right place at the right time. This is why there are so few people who actually make a living by investing or trading in stocks.

Profit Confidential

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