Earnings continue to be weak, jobs are being axed by the tens of thousands a day, and the economy looks like it is being flushed down the toilet. Ther...
Earnings continue to be weak,
jobs are being axed by the tens of thousands a day, and the economy looks like it is being flushed down the toilet. There is little positive news in the market.
Now there is rising debate on the details of President Obama's economic stimulus plan, which was approved by the House last week, yet not even one Republican voted for the plan. The debate concerns the lack of creation of jobs in the plan. The continued loss of jobs is worrisome, and I expect the trend will continue, as companies slash payroll costs in-line with slower revenues. The problem is that lost jobs impact consumer confidence and spending. People are saving more than in the last two decades and this is clearly not the objective of the economic stimulus programs. As I have said, unless the velocity of spending rises, the stimulus dollars may have minimal impact. The government would then need to increase the amount. Some pundits are arguing over whether $2.0 trillion in stimulus will be required.
There is increased optimism towards the financial and credit markets given the new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his objective to create a more just system. In addition, President Obama said that he would create banks to absorb bad assets in the financial system. Yet, despite this, I continue to see high risk in the financial sector. I would continue to avoid investing here, as I feel there is more downside risk.
On the earnings front, the fourth-quarter earnings have been largely weak, which is nothing unexpected. There have been few positive surprises. Companies have reduced guidance going forward or have not offered guidance due to the economic uncertainties and the length and depth of the global recession.
As far as the economy goes, the news continues to be bad. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level on record, which is expected given the loss of wealth in the housing and stock markets. The housing market continues to be distressed, with an 18.2% decline in home prices in November.
At the Fed meeting, there was no change to monetary policy. With interest rates as low as they can go, the Fed will pursue additional avenues to fuel economic growth and drive up consumer and business confidence. The leading indicators report for December showed a rise versus a predicted decline, which is obviously adding some optimism to the market that the stimulus programs are beginning to work. I remain cautious on this.
As I have been saying, the U.S. and global economies are in deep trouble.
I do not expect a significant and sustainable rebound at this time given the high market risk. There could be a downside move from major market indices towards the November multi-year low and we will see if it is a valid bottom.
As an investor and trader, you need to be careful in this market and protect your capital. Taking big risks could wipe out your capital for trading.
Given the current market conditions, I remain bearish at this time. I advise you to remain prudent in your trading and avoid any unnecessary risk.
Profit Confidential
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