Don't get lulled into jumping on the bandwagon because of the current strength in the equity market. I believe it to be another bear market rally. The...
Don't get lulled into jumping on the bandwagon because of the current strength in the equity market. I believe it to be another bear market rally. The percentage gains have been so strong because there is a lot of money out there sitting on the sidelines. Investors want a reason to buy stocks,
but so far, the only reason to do so has been as a trade on an oversold market.
The single best thing that has happened to the financial markets in recent days was the news from Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE/C) that its first quarter was operating at a profit. Even Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/C) came out and said that it was profitable in the first two months of the year. This was a real confidence builder and a signal that the banking group has taken its medicine and is slowly getting better.
I have no doubt that the stock market will lead the economy out of recession, but I think that it's just too early yet for this to happen. The fundamental news in the economy is still getting worse and there is a long way to go before GDP stabilizes.
The stock market has also been trading on the daily changes of stimulus spending in China and, frankly, this isn't good. When the only reason to buy stocks is that China is upping its economic stimulus spending, this is a real signal of just how weak investor sentiment really is.
For a sustained upswing in stock prices, we need the housing market to stabilize, so the economy can stabilize. Then we need the big Dow companies like Caterpillar and United Technologies to say that business is getting better.
The stock market always likes to bet on the future and then, when the future arrives, it doesn't really know what to do with itself. Right now, investors are betting that things are going to get better, but there's no end in sight. This means that investment risk in equities remains very high and we're vulnerable to another big sell-off.
I continue to think that the market is in the process of bottoming out. We're likely in for a period of sustained, range-bound trading in stock prices, because I think it's just too early for the market to be betting on such an uncertain future.
The best thing that can happen going forward is the stabilization and growth in the financial sector of the economy. Decent results from the big banks will a major determining factor in restoring confidence to all capital markets. There is an enormous amount of cash floating around in the system and deposit growth is likely to be very strong this year. This bodes well for the future and will slowly increase the flow of credit. A lot of people and businesses are complaining that the availability of credit is still too tight, but they forget that, just like in other markets, the credit market was in a bubble and that bubble burst.
Profit Confidential
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