In this article we have a look at the emergence of ratings based racing and how it has impacted punters in their eternal quest at the track, of backing the next winner
Finding winners in the horse racing game is never easy and has actually become more tricky with the implementation of 'ratings-based racing' over the last 18 months forcing punters to look more closely at weights and measures in lining these gallopers up. Ok, so what is ratings-based races? Well, basically each horse is given a "rating" which is updated after every start they have... then for example, if their rating is 69 then they cannot run in a 68RB (Ratings-Based) race where as they can race in a 70RB (or higher obviously).
Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by "discretionary" handicapping (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse's weight). The user cannot expect that all horses having a "ratings" adjustment after any particular race will necessarily be in a manner that allows each horse to be meeting each other runner that finishes in front of him or her on better terms.
So are "Ratings" essential in finding winners... Well one professional punter mostly overlooks computer generated ratings, David Gately from OzRacingForm.com (who can boast a strike-rate of around 85% winners from his top-rated runners - an amazing stat) says, "I simply look for the horses coming through the strongest races, I line up weights and certainly relative times but rule no.1 always has to be: Is the horse good enough to win the race. Sounds funny when you say it out loud, but it's pretty simple".
A couple of things ratings cannot give you are: Firstly, A horse early in his/her career or even early in his/her preparation has "upside" or scope to improve many lengths... No computer can judge for this. Secondly, and using an example, a horse may be a very good 1000m galloper yet this race is 1200m... This horse is the highest-rated runner in the race and may be favourite, however, realistically he has little chance of winning at a distance he is not comfortable at.
We interviewed many racing experts but thought this explanation... One of Occam's Razor if you like (where the most obvious is usually the right) was the best. And of course, David has the strike-rate to back up his comments.
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) however, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).
See you at the track...
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