The H1N1 Effect

In the first two years after the term "Swine Flu" was used to describe the illness that mutated and jumped toH1N1 WHO Logo humans from pigs, the U.S. Pork Industry suffered losses estimated to be in excess of $5 billion. This despite the reality that what came to be known more frequently as H1N1 - partially as a result of the outcries from farmers - cannot be contracted from eating pork. And those loss figures do not, of course, include either the collateral damage caused to meat retailers and restaurants or comparable figures from other regions of the world.

Global reaction to the threat of BSE - most of us know it as "Mad Cow Disease" - was far in excess to the actual threat to humans.

Have you heard anyone say, during the past year or two, "I'll never buy anything made in China again" or the more frequent variation "I'll never eat food containing ingredients from China again - or give it to my pets."

Any number of U.S. food recalls, even after government announcements made it clear that the problems impacted or originated from a limited geographic area, prompted much more widespread consumer avoidance until the fear subsided - usually non-coincidental with the media and blogosphere finding something else to panic about.

I'm not a psychologist and hence will not try to explain why people react as they have. As a crisis management professional, I need only to know that they have, and will again, demonstrate what I call "The H1N1 Effect,", which occurs when consumers make fear-based irrational decisions about a perceived health risk that wreak extensive financial damage, threaten organizational and/or brand reputations, and cause severe business interruptions.

Knowing this, it is incumbent on crisis managers, particularly those involved with products which could potentially impact consumer health and/or safety, to be prepared when their stakeholders could be the next victim of "The H1N1 Effect." Some elements of preparedness would include:

* Closely tracking developments related to the health/safety of your products, using expert resources to help you spot early warning signs of risk.

* "What if..." brainstorming involving internal parties and external experts, the goal being to think through the process you would have to follow to respond should a worst-case scenario occur.

* Creating educational materials about your products and/or industry and its health/safety practices that could be widely and rapidly disseminated in response to the demand that would no doubt be created by an "H1N1 Effect" event.

* Ensuring that your organization/industry has a very strong online presence that can be used in the near-term to build a cushion of goodwill and during a crisis for rapid communication.

* Creating business continuity and crisis communications plans, with the latter including internal and external elements, both B2B and direct-to-consumer.

* Ensuring that appropriate personnel are trained to use those plans, to include media training and simulation exercises.

A lesson learned the hard way by some industries is that you shouldn't rely on the U.S. government or even your own trade organizations to protect your reputation and bottom line when the stuff hits the fan. For weeks after BSE was finally detected in a U.S.-based cow, I couldn't find a single restaurant server, or grocery store employee, who could tell me with certainty that the beef I bought at their locations was safe to eat. The government's announcements were all in consumer-unfriendly jargon, and the industry associations were completely unprepared despite the known threat. If they had been prepared to support their distribution chain with messaging that would minimize loss of sales, I would have been given a reassuring handout right on the scene.

The next "H1N1 Effect" is coming. Are you prepared?'