Chinese Intervention

We face the risk of seeing the smaller nations adhere to Chinese policy preferences as a means to secure their own long-term interests. After all China is certainly in no danger of abandoning the region to its own devices. Despite the appearance that China has let North Korea off the leash, it is unlikely that the “hermit kingdom” has acted beyond the scope of Chinese imposed limits. China’s trade and military relations with Kim Jong-il’s regime give it considerable leverage over it. A Chinese intervention to replace the regime with another more suitable to China’s national interest would not be opposed by any other nation. The ongoing Six--Party talks have yielded little on the diplomatic front, though they at least represent a show of good faith by the Chinese (and Russians). This diplomatic stagnation should create less concern for us and our allies because China possesses so much leverage over Pyongyang and China has every interest in ensuring that a war be prevented. It does not want to face the refugee crisis that a war would surely bring, nor would it care to see such a close-hand demonstration of American military power (inclusive of the possibility of nuclear exchanges with the North Koreans). The conclusion of such a war is also foregone: North Korea would be occupied, eliminating a territorial buffer zone China has long enjoyed. Given these considerations, the Chinese probably prefer to perpetuate the status quo. China has given some very positive signals on security over the last decade or so. China joined the Missile Transfer Control Regime in 1994 and signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty extension in 1995. Both suggest China began to think of itself as a status quo power about ten years ago, with a stake in preventing proliferation.