William Cate

Why I'll Bet on the Bull

Last week, most Daytraders had a terrible week. The Bearslaughtered them by the thousands. There was "Blood in the Streets" at thewire houses where Daytraders congregate. Did we witness the beginning of aRecession or Depression last week?

There are many sound reasons for betting on the Bear. Here are ahalf dozen reasons that the Bear should win.

1. We've had a 17 year Bull Market. It has gone on too long and the DIA is
too high.
2. Private businesses are making less profit.
3. Few public companies are profitable.
4. Business costs are going up faster than business revenue.
5. The Feds should tighten the money supply. I doubt they'll do it because
they will fear the Bear and the potential of a Recession.
6. Inflation is higher than the Government reports. The Government removed
heating oil and gasoline from the inflation index because they have nearly
doubled in price.

There is one simple reason that the Bull will win. After the 1987Market Correction, the Government decided to allow the Feds to invest inthe Market. The Feds started buying stocks around noon Friday (4/14/00).They will continue to buy until panic ends. Meanwhile, they have theweekend to manipulate Market Forces. It's a matter of aligning allies andeducating the press and others as to the reasons the Bull should prevailbefore the November election.

As long as the U. S. Dollar is strong, the Bull will win everybattle with the Bear. The Feds buying unlimited stock means the StockMarket is backed by the "Full Faith of the U. S. Government." For the Bearto win, the U. S. Dollar must be seen as worthless. This will eventuallyhappen. It's unlikely to happen in the next ten or fifteen years. When ithappens, we'll face the worst Depression in History.

What will bring down the World Economy? It'll be derivatives. Whatwill bring down our Civilization? It'll be the collapse of the environment.Both will happen in this Century. Neither will happen this year.

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