Macedonia's great accomplishment is to have survived

Interview granted by Sam Vaknin to the Portuguese newsmagazine Politika, November 8, 2009

Q. In October the European commission has recommended that Macedonia should start its EU accession negotiations… Do you think the entrance of Macedonia in the EU will happen in 2012 as predicted?

No, I don't. Macedonia is not ready to accede to the EU and the EU bureaucracy know it. Macedonia has received a date for commencing the negotiations only because the EU is very troubled about the explosive situation in Bosnia, Kosovo, and in western Macedonia where restive and belligerent Albanians are a majority. The EU would rather postpone by as much as it can the accession of the "Ottoman Bloc" (Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania, and Kosovo which were all under strict Turkish rule for centuries). Macedonia would never accede to the EU before Serbia and Albania do and definitely not in its current state: poverty, corruption, low level of education, problems with human and minority rights, incompetent public administration, dysfunctional institutions, bad relations with all its neighbors, and a budding authoritarian faux-nationalistic regime.

Q. In June 2008 elections there were violent conflicts between the Albanian parties DUI and DPA. However, in April 2009, presidential and local elections in the country were carried out peacefully. Do you think the disputes between the two Albanian parties are now permanently solved?

DPA received unequivocal messages from Albanians in Albania and in Kosovo and from the international community that another civil war (such as the one that ONA, DUI's military predecessor, provoked in 2001) will not be tolerated. They are now in search of an alternative, more peaceful strategy of deposing DUI while complying with the rules of the democratic game. If they fail to be heard, however, the consequences in terms of strife could be dire. Political parties in this country function as combination employment bureaus and travel agencies. These vast, all-pervasive networks of patronage guarantee access to public funds and enhanced social mobility. Excluding the voters of any single party from this process of coordinated looting of the state is dangerously counter-productive and destabilizing.

Q. Do you believe the recognition of Kosovo independence, despite Serbia’s opposition, is an important contribution for the good relationship between Slav Macedonians and Albanian Macedonians?

The preferred term is "ethnic Macedonians", I believe. The recognition of Kosovo was mainly a nod to the West and an acquiescence to the relentless pressure exerted by the USA. DUI can present it as an achievement and, in this sense, it does reduce the friction between the two coalition partners. But DUI does not represent all the Albanians. DPA, for instance, is unlikely to be mollified by gestures that electorally buttress its main rival.

Q. How do you comment on the Greek persistent opposition to Macedonia’s name? Should European Union have a stronger influence over Greece, since most UN countries recognized the name Republic of Macedonia?

The Greeks not only oppose Macedonia's constitutional name, but they dispute the Macedonians' self-imputed identity as the direct descendants of the ancient Macedonians (with or without Slav blood). They also do not recognize the Macedonians within Greek borders as a separate minority, having persecuted them in the 20th century and having confiscated swathes of their property now worth billions of euros. Thus, the "name issue" is a multi-layered, complex bilateral dispute. The EU cannot sacrifice well-entrenched principles of governance just to resolve a single conflict with a minor wannabe Associate Member. Greece is far more important to the EU (and, more generally, to the West). It also has vested historical and institutional rights in the EU. Finally, Greece's flirt with Russia is a trump card. The West will easily sacrifice Macedonia to prevent a Greek-Russian axis on its southern flank. Macedonians must now choose between letting go of their identity, or ditching their future in the EU.

Q. Macedonia has lodged a lawsuit against Greece at the International Court of Justice in the Hague for blocking its NATO entry. Do you think the court decision will be in favor of Macedonia?

Yes, I think that the Court will rule in Macedonia's favor and Greece will ignore the ruling. Still, such a judgment would be an important moral victory for Macedonia.

Q. Macedonia's Foreign Minister Antonio Milososki is ready to continue talks with Greece in order to try to find a solution to the name row UN. However, the prime-minister Nikola Gruevski doesn’t seem willing to change the country's name. Which solution can be found?

Greece is not negotiating with Macedonia. Greece owns large chunks of Macedonia's economy and has enormous leverage over the country. Greece is negotiating the name issue with the USA and, to some extent, within the EU. Any concessions Greece makes, it would make in order to curry favor with the new Obama administration. Finally, Macedonia will have to change its constitutional name (probably to "The Republic of North Macedonia").

Q. Macedonia’s junior government party, the ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) set a deadline of December for its senior ethnic Macedonian partner to solve the ongoing “name” row. What does this means in terms of government coalition?

It means nothing. The issue will not be solved until December, of course. Still, the government will be able to show some "procedural" progress, make a few "creative" proposals and DUI will declare itself satisfied with these "achievements". The state administration is a goose that lays numerous golden eggs for DUI activists and members. Why slaughter it?

Q. Is the name dispute affecting the important economic relationship between Macedonia and Greece? Or could it affect this relationship in the future, is the dispute stands longer?

Macedonia's economic relationship with Greece is completely divorced from this and other political disputes between the two countries (for instance, regarding the Aegean Macedonians which were expelled from Greece last century). Greece continues to invest in Macedonia and trade with it and Macedonian tourists continue to flock to Greek resorts. This cannot change: Macedonia is partly-owned by Greek companies and banks and, as a land-locked country, depends on Greece for access to the sea. In fact, persistent rumors are that Greece is preparing to offer Macedonia a a packet of economic measures and “goodies” to help resolve the name issue.

Q. EU has urged the country to cut down on corruption before accession talks. Is this being achieved?

Overt corruption by small-time functionaries is definitely down. Whether institutionalized, high-level venality is on the rise is anyone's guess. The government has succeeded to change the atmosphere and the parameters of public debate, so that corruption is no longer tolerated, expected, or accepted by citizens and law enforcement authorities. But the ruling political elite is still untouchable, unaccountable, and non-transparent. In this sense, nothing has changed.

Q. The U.S. has invested in the judicial reform and that Rule of Law in Macedonia. Do you believe this reform is happening?

No, if we go by public perceptions, it has been a complete failure. Macedonia's courts have the somewhat justified reputation of being a travesty: clogged, politicized, corrupt, incompetent, and biased. The law is applied selectively against political opponents and investigative journalists. The average citizen has no recourse and equality before the law. Proceedings are often so slow as to constitute an abortion of justice. Some judges are ill-educated, misinformed, under political or police dictates, eminently bribable, luddite, and provincial.

Q. In 2009 Macedonia's unemployment rate is expected to hit 35% and youth unemployment, which currently stands at 54 per cent, is particularly worrying for the EC. How can Macedonia invert these statistics? Macedonia’s largest export oriented branches such as the metal, building and textile industries are being affected by the international crisis. Can tourism or other industries be a good bet in terms of GDP?

Macedonia is not a viable economic entity in its current form. Macedonia sustains an enormous trade deficit (equal to 45% of GDP) because its export markets are not diversified (60% of its exports go to the EU); its industry is non-competitive; its currency is way overvalued; and its exports are subject to cyclical price movements. It must dump its antiquated industry and agriculture and concentrate its efforts on services, tourism, biotechnology, finance, education, healthcare, entrepreneurship, microlending, and information technology. It must export its manpower to other countries willingly and in a planned fashion. It must wean itself from its dependence on borrowing and liberalize its foreign exchange regime. It must actively encourage exports and vehemently discourage imports. But, Macedonia's leaders always look for a miracle: loans from Taiwan, foreign investors, Jewish money. They are unwilling to confront reality, preferring instead to live in a fantasyland. The government sector constitutes 60% of the country's GDP and the state employs a whopping one third of the active workforce. Macedonia has had no economic crisis because it does not have an economy.

Q. After the NATO bombing, important trade links with Serbia have been broken creating economy slumps and unemployment. Is it possible to get these ties fixed?

This ties have been fixed long ago, with the rise of pro-Western politicians in Belgrade. Serbia is one of Macedonia's main trading partners, shares with it critical infrastructure (electricity, roads), and collaborates with Macedonia's army and intelligence services. Macedonians are essentially a Slavic, Christian Orthodox nation, very much like the Serbs.

Q. After the Kosovo war, the West, namely USA and EU, promised foreign help, a Stability Pact, to repair the damage in Macedonia economy. 10 years after the war, do you think this promise materialized?

Only a small fraction of the international aid pledges made to Macedonia in various donor conferences in the wake of the Kosovo crisis
 has actually made it to its coffers. The Stability Pact was a glorified talk shop, though it helped the countries of the region to maintain a productive dialog and encouraged economic collaboration among them.

Q. Despite its economic, judicial and political challenges, Macedonia was ranked, in 2008, as the fourth 'best reformatory state' out of 178 countries ranked by the World Bank. What were the most important achievements of Macedonia since independence?

There is no question that - like Obama - "reform" and "change" have been the mantras of the Gruevski administration. But the changes implemented were shallow, cosmetic, populist, and mainly intended to foster foreign direct investment. The World bank and the IMF are creditor institutions. Their main concern is to make sure that Macedonia's balance of payments can guarantee debt service and the repayment of loans to commercial creditors. Their ranking is meaningless because it does not reflect the truly salient issues: was the economy thoroughly revamped and restructured (no); did the government's policies create sustained jobs (no); was the dependence of foreign capital reduced (no); did domestic investment in crucial areas of the economy increase (no); did the country's multilateral standing improve (no).

Macedonia's main accomplishment hitherto is to have survived. It was the subject of an economic embargo, internal conflict, wars on its border, floods of refugees, economic meltdown, hyperinflation, brain drain - and, yet, it is still here, looking forward to a European and prosperous future. Macedonia is resilient, if nothing else.