Jeera Technical Analysis
In the Sep 2013 contract, Prices have corrected sharply and now trading at 13115 near the immediate support at 12700.
Now further downside could be seen only below the given support otherwise price may recover from this level. On the upside immediate resistance is at 14150 and at 16000. Meanwhile,
two consecutive closes below INR 12700 shall keep its downward trend intact in near term. The 14-day RSI and stochastic (9, 3, 3) is trading in neutral region with downward bias indicating sideways to negative trend in near term. Concisely prices are expected to trade mild positive during coming couple of trading session.
Recommendation: - Based on the charts and explanations our opinion is, buying the Jeera above 13350 targeting 13700/13880 and stop loss above 12990 might be appropriate.
JEERA FUNDAMENTALS:-
1) Jeera futures are in the grip of bears as prices corrected sharply from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS data, Cumin seed exported 9462.64 tonnes during June 2013 month as compared to the 12177.75 tonnes during May month. During June 2013 Cumin seed export down by 2715.11 tonnes.
2) In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Exports orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey.
3) One percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,350- 2,400/tn (FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,750–2,850/tn (FOB Mumbai ) .
4) Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each) , marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011 -12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.
Jeera Outlook: - Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices while higher supplies and good rains in the Jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria and Turkey are not shipping.
