Zimbabwe’s Diamond Reality vs Paul’s Marange Prediction

Paul’s Forecast: Marange’s Rise and Potential Decline

In his article Marange May Not Be The World’s Largest Diamond Producer For Much Longer, Paul documented how the Marange diamond fields produced about 17 million carats in 2013. That output represented roughly 13 % of global supply by volume — a major contribution for Zimbabwe. 

Paul explained that the deposit was unusually shallow and alluvial, meaning diamonds were easy to recover with light, low-cost equipment. This alluvial nature allowed rapid initial extraction but hinted at a short resource lifespan compared to deep pit and underground mines. 

Critically, Paul noted that most economic resources could deplete quickly and that mining deeper conglomerate rock would require expensive, advanced equipment. Many operators were unwilling to invest, risking production decline. 

He also flagged governance and trade concerns. Due to historical human rights and export sanction issues, Marange diamonds traded at a discount and faced barriers entering key markets like the U.S. 

This analysis set expectations that Zimbabwe might struggle to sustain production and economic value over time.

How Zimbabwe’s Diamond Production Evolved

Since 2014, Zimbabwe’s diamond production has fluctuated. Marange did not sustain the 17 million carat peak for long. Production dropped as easy alluvial deposits were exhausted. Official data and industry estimates suggest volumes have decreased significantly since the early 2010s. 

Mining deeper conglomerate zones, warned by Paul, proved costly and technically challenging. Some operators slowed operations or closed entirely rather than invest in advanced equipment. 

Zimbabwe has also shifted mining governance structures. Over the years, companies were replaced or consolidated under state-linked corporations to improve control. However, these changes have not fully stabilized output or increased investment. 

Marange thus moved from being arguably the leading diamond producer by volume to a lesser role. Larger, long-life mines in Botswana and Russia now dominate global output in both volume and value. 

Image: Aerial view of Marange diamond fields illustrating widespread alluvial mining. Photo: satellite imagery

Value and Market Position: What Has Changed?

One of Paul’s key concerns was that Marange diamonds traded at a discount due to quality and sanctions issues. That remains true today. Zimbabwean rough diamonds tend to be smaller and lower value than many of their peers. 

The average price per carat of Marange rough typically falls well below the global average, partly because many stones are suited only for industrial use. 

Production also faced export challenges. While some sanctions, like those from the European Union, were lifted to revive trade, restrictions and reputational issues persist. These factors limit Zimbabwe’s access to high-value markets. 

Global diamond benchmarks such as the De Beers Group’s production and sales reports show continued strength in traditional, deep-mine operations, contrasting with Zimbabwe’s struggles.

Market conditions outside Zimbabwe make comparisons even starker. For instance, Botswana’s Orapa and Jwaneng mines continue to supply tens of millions of carats at higher quality and steadier prices, reinforcing the relative challenges facing Zimbabwe’s diamond producers. 

Governance, Community Benefit, and Socio-Economic Impact

Paul’s original analysis touched on structural governance risk without extensive socio-economic data. Over time, criticisms have grown regarding how Zimbabwe’s diamond revenue benefits citizens. Many local communities, including villagers in drought-affected regions near Marange, report little improvement in living standards despite abundant resources. 

Reports highlight failures to deliver promised infrastructure, health, and education investments. Some analysts describe this as a form of “resource curse,” where wealth extraction does not translate into broad economic benefit. 

Despite government initiatives to increase oversight, transparency remains limited. The ongoing need for institutional reform echoes Paul’s early concerns about governance and reporting. 

Zimbabwe’s Diamond Sector Vs Paul’s 2014 Insights

Looking back, Paul Zimnisky’s 2014 assessment of Marange proved prescient in many respects. His projection that Zimbabwe might soon lose its status as the world’s largest diamond producer by volume has come true. 

Production volumes declined as alluvial deposits depleted, and deeper mining proved harder and costlier than anticipated. Market access and value challenges remain, aligning with Paul’s warnings. 

However, Zimbabwe has made some progress in structuring its mining sector and attracting auctions in global hubs. While the diamond industry has not delivered the broad economic transformation hoped for, it continues to play a key role in the country’s mining landscape.