The State of Innovation: Is it Really Dead?

This lack of enthusiasm for new tech products cannot be attributed to the tragic events of September 11. Even prior to these attacks, consumers and business professionals alike seemed to have adopted a rather indifferent attitude towards tech introductions, from PCs to broadband. Have you noticed a decrease in the urgency to acquire the latest, fastest computer or internet connection?

During this period of apparent stagnation, the initial optimism surrounding the internet and technology in general has noticeably waned. Our expectations have gradually declined, and we no longer anticipate being amazed by the extent of connectivity or advancements in our quality of life. Instead, we find ourselves hoping that the vague, intangible decline we sense will not be too severe.

The Hidden Innovation Boom

However, just as the 1999 dot com explosion concealed an impending crash, there is an innovation boom quietly growing amidst the gloomy headlines of layoffs and plummeting earnings reports. If you were to inquire about the design staff of any tech company, you would find that this is the one area of the corporation that has remained untouched by cutbacks and layoffs.

Gary Smith, chief analyst of design & engineering at the San Jose-based research firm Gartner Dataquest, is well aware of this phenomenon. "Design spending always increases during a recession. You 'design' your way out of a recession," Smith stated. The analyst recently unveiled data indicating an innovation surge occurring as the economy declines. Innovation tends to slacken as spending increases. Much of the innovation that will fuel the impending upturn is currently being developed in a flurry of activity that is largely unnoticed. Don't be deceived by the apparent tranquility.

The Future of Innovation

When we eventually experience a resurgence of fruitful product and service introductions, you'll notice that the internet will not be the focal point of innovation as it was between 1999 and 2002. While much of the innovation will be internet-based, developed via the internet, and incorporate internet components, the internet will no longer be the epicenter of innovation. Instead, it will serve as the network on which the innovation resides.

Just as we adapted to transferring bank funds using our push-button phones without marveling at the newfound capabilities of our phones, the internet will play a central role in upcoming technological advancements. It will form the core of new developments, but it won't be the focus. The internet will become so pervasive, it will essentially become invisible.

We may witness an influx of niche television programming via our cable service. New features on our television may allow us to select from thousands of movies or enable us to watch a network program at any time of our choosing. We may even be able to use the television as an encyclopedia, or access home videos using our remote control. It's likely that our PCs, gaming platforms, and televisions will become indistinguishable.

The internet will be the lifeblood of these innovations, yet it won't resemble the internet as we know it. No more scratchy dial-up connections or waiting for pages to load. No more choppy, brief video clips that threaten to freeze and crash. No more tangled wires stuffed into a surge protector.

These innovations are currently being developed. Many are ready and waiting. Some are wireless, some are broadband, and most incorporate the internet in some form. They won't be unveiled until consumers and executives display renewed optimism. This seemingly quiet period of tech decline is merely a pause. Once we regain our collective momentum, we'll step into the next era of tech breakthroughs that will once again transform our lives.