The Cash Stashers

Mar 10
08:46

2009

Michael Lombardi

Michael Lombardi

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Here's a fact you won't read elsewhere:Americans are stashing away $100 billion a month into banks -- the highest level ever. The top four American ba...

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Here's a fact you won't read elsewhere:

Americans are stashing away $100 billion a month into banks -- the highest level ever. The top four American banks alone are sitting on $4.7 trillion in customer deposits.

Instead of a run on the banks to take money out,The Cash Stashers Articles the line up is to put money in (the opposite of what happened during the Great Depression). Why? Four words: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The Federal Government will guarantee up to $250,000 of a depositor's money in an FDIC recognized bank. Hence, why invest in stocks or bonds in these uncertain times when you can put your money in a bank and be guaranteed to get it back?

There are pros and there are cons to the new cash-stashing ways of Americans.

As consumers turn from spenders to savers, they prefer to save their cash, as opposed to spending it. This places pressure on restaurants, retail outlets and service industries dependent on consumer sales. The banks that can lend out a portion of their depositors' funds in loans to other customers are hesitant to do so, because they have enough bad loans on the books. The banks are just sitting on the cash. These are the negatives.

In my study of recessions, consumer spending is what always takes us out of poor economic times. With Americans turning from spenders to savers, socking away $100 billion a month, as the economic news improves, we know the money to spend will be there. This is a big positive.

Today, there is a crisis of investor and consumer confidence in the economy. Over time, that confidence will abide. While it may be difficult for many of us to see, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. At some point ahead, pent-up consumer demand will need to be satisfied and that will make way for consumer spending again, to the delight of the economy.

** Michael's Personal Notes:

If you are not unemployed, you don't know how difficult it is out there. I have many friends who own businesses. Most are putting money in their businesses to keep them afloat, because the banks won't give them more funds to run their operations. How long can small business owners keep putting money in their businesses? Logically, until the point where they run out of money. Washington is too busy focusing on saving the giant financial institutions and the auto makers. They are doing nothing for the small business owner -- the backbone of the American economy. Small businesses in the U.S. with less than 100 employees account for 85% of all employed people in the country.

** Where the Market Stands:

Down 25% for the year; that's where the Dow Jones Industrial Average opens this week. It takes seven ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrials. Back in 2000, it would take 44 ounces of gold to buy the world's most watched stock index. I'm a big gold bug. I would not be surprised to see the relationship between gold and the Dow Jones move much closer to a point where it would take between two to five ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Hence, either the Dow Jones has to fall much further, the price of gold has to rise much higher, or a bit of both.

** What He Said:

"The conversation at parties is no longer about the stock market, it's about real estate. 'Our home has gone up this much or our country home has doubled in price.' Looking around today, it would be very difficult to find people who believe that one day it could be out of vogue to own real estate, because properties would be such a bad investment. Those investors who believe a dark day will never come for the property market are just fooling themselves." -- Michael Lombardi, in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, June 6, 2005. Michael started warning about the crisis coming in the U.S. real estate market right at the peak of the boom, now widely believed to be 2005.

Profit Confidential

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