The Reality of Iraq: A Closer Look at the Challenges and Costs

Understanding the Complexity of the Conflict

The National Intelligence Council's January 2007 report, "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead," paints a grim picture of the situation in Iraq. The report argues that the term "civil war" is too simplistic to describe the multifaceted conflict in Iraq, which includes Shia-on-Shia violence, attacks by al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgents, and widespread criminal activities. The report emphasizes that without significant improvements in security within 12-18 months, the situation will likely continue to deteriorate, mirroring the latter part of 2006.

Key Points from the NIC Report:

• Extensive Shia-on-Shia violence
• Persistent attacks by al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgents
• High levels of criminally motivated violence
• Increasing communal and insurgent violence and political extremism

The Surge Strategy: A Reevaluation

President Bush's strategy to increase troops, commonly referred to as the "surge," aimed to stabilize Iraq by bolstering the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However, this approach has faced significant criticism. Despite training over 300,000 members of the ISF, their effectiveness remains questionable. Issues such as combat losses, desertion, and reluctance of units to serve outside their recruitment areas have plagued the ISF. Moreover, some members of the ISF have been implicated in contributing to the violence, further complicating efforts to restore peace.

Challenges Facing the ISF:

• High rates of desertion and leave
• Equipment shortages
• Reluctance to serve outside native regions
• Infiltration by elements contributing to violence

Financial Costs of the U.S. Involvement

The financial burden of the military surge is substantial. According to a request by the Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. to the Congressional Budget Office, sustaining an additional 20,000 troops for a four-month deployment would cost approximately $13 billion, with $9 billion in 2007 and $3 billion in 2008. This figure increases significantly when support troops are included, totaling 48,000 troops. The cost for a full year's deployment of these troops would be around $27 billion.

Breakdown of Costs for Troop Surge:

• Four-month deployment (combat troops only): $13 billion
• Four-month deployment (including support troops): $27 billion
• Annual cost for extended deployment: $27 billion

Alternative Uses for the Funds

The $27 billion earmarked for the troop surge could significantly impact domestic programs, particularly veterans' affairs. President Bush's 2007 budget proposed an $8.8 billion increase for the Department of Veterans Affairs, which has a total budget of $80.6 billion. An additional $27 billion could potentially provide all veterans with free health coverage and medications at VA facilities, a stark contrast to the proposed increases in enrollment fees and pharmacy co-payments.

Potential Improvements with $27 Billion:

• Enhanced health coverage for veterans
• Free medications at VA facilities
• Elimination of enrollment fees and reduced co-payments

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict in Iraq presents a complex challenge that is not easily resolved by increasing troop numbers or military spending. The effectiveness of the Iraqi Security Forces remains limited, and the financial costs of continued U.S. involvement are substantial. It is crucial to consider alternative strategies and the potential domestic benefits of reallocating resources. As the situation evolves, a reassessment of priorities may be necessary to address both the needs of U.S. citizens and the stabilization efforts in Iraq.