As new reports filter in daily of new outbreaks of bird flu, here we address the likelihood for them to develop into a full-blown pandemic, and what result this might have on our society and the economy. This article attempts to cut through the media hype and hysteria to give a dispassionate and rounded view on the steps we can and should take.
With all the hysteria around at the moment, it’s hard to know who or what to believe.
The doomsayers would have you think that millions globally are going to die, the survivors living in a world devastated by disease and ravaged by war and famine as survivors pick their way in small groups through lawless, barren territories, Mad Max-style. No state, no economy, no health service or police, just you, what's left of your family, a small pack of candles and a hungry mob roaming outside looting and burning.
On the other hand, the naysayers blithely dismiss the media's eager coverage of every little chicken's sneeze as mere hype to sell papers, pointing out that we've seen it all before with SARS, and look what happened there, they say - nothing. Yes, a few people will get sick, but they'll all be poultry farmers in the Far East, the rest of us will hardly notice 'bird flu' disappear as quickly as it came. There can't be another pandemic, medical science is too advanced and world governments act so quickly to quarantine outbreaks. In any case, there'll be a vaccine, won't there?
Well, the truth, as usual, is somewhere in between. We ARE better prepared than with previous pandemics. It's unlikely that the machinery of state will break down, thanks to the billions in money and hours spent Cold War disaster planning - post-apocalypse scenarios have been run and decisions made as to what to do hundreds of times by government agencies. But we ARE well overdue for a flu pandemic and it CANNOT be contained locally. Flu becomes highly contagious BEFORE symptoms appear in the host, and birds do not respect international borders, meaning that rapid transmission from flock to flock is possible in wild birds before we can spot and quarantine it. Likewise, humans in foreign countries boarding planes to come here may not display symptoms but could infect others on the flight. Any ban on air travel would be the final nail in the global economy, which would already be creaking under the toll on businesses of an estimated 30 per cent or more of employees who call in sick. Add to that the number who may stay away from work from fear of contracting flu, and you can see how even things we take for granted like full supermarket shelves, working and staffed hospitals, police and fire stations would no longer be a given. Commodities such as water, electricity, gas and petrol could become a (very expensive) rarity. With a global capitalist economy that relies on credit, as institutions and individuals defaulted, banks would call in loans that could not be repaid. Share prices could plummet as people convert to liquid assets, although rampant inflation might wipe savings out as quickly as shares in freefall. Also, effective vaccines need to know the genetic make-up of the virus, which would mutate regularly, as Darwinism dictates. Therefore not only would we not have a vaccine in the first wave, but it would be of only limited use as the vaccine mutates. The British Government estimates around 50,000 UK citizens would probably die in the initial outbreak.
The most likely scenario? An apocalyptic vision along the lines of a post-nuclear disaster movie? We don’t think so. Another Great Depression? We hope not. A flu pandemic which kills millions globally and causes a period of economic instability and logistical disruption of basic commodities even in developed nations? Quite possibly, yes.
Therefore, doesn't it make sense to be prepared? Do you know how to combat a flu pandemic? Even just to know what you should stock up on, what products are specifically designed to protect your family. If you have car insurance, or home insurance, doesn't it make sense to spend a few pounds insuring yourself against bird flu?
Well, even stocking up on some cans of food (meat and vegetables), freezing some extra food (to be eaten before the cans!), flour, dried milk, bottled water, camping gas stove, soap and toothpaste would help as short-term there is likely to be panic buying. Make sure you rotate the food for use by dates, so long-term buying extra food will not cost you any money if there is no pandemic, you’ll just have a bit extra in the cupboard.
In the event of a pandemic, can you afford not to go to work and can you also educate any kids you have at home? If so, great! If the answer to either is, unfortunately but most probably, no, then what protection should you invest in? Disposable face masks (or ‘respirators’) designed to keep viruses and bacteria out are highly recommended. These should be designated as at least N95 (North America) or FFP2 (Europe), the designated numbers measure the ability of the mask to filter airborne liquid and solid aerosols – in the case of these, about 93% are filtered. WHO recommends these or higher specification masks. Better yet are N100 or FFP3 respirators, these have a 99%+ filtration rate. UK government agencies like DEFRA and the Department of Health will only recommend FFP3, which seems reasonable given that most people wouldn’t want to wear a mask that ‘leaked’ 7% of aerosols, such as the flu virus, through to the respiratory tract
Interestingly, there have been a lot of websites attempting to sell surgical masks and dust masks as a form of flu protection, despite the fact that they are proven to be next to useless as a barrier to micro-organisms. Such blatant and misleading profiteering is at best unethical but in the context that people may well rely on these things to save their lives, downright dangerous. 'Dust masks' and surgical masks are ill fitting and porous to viruses and bacteria in liquid droplets. In fact, research by clinical pathologists shows that in tests surgical masks are effective barriers for a mere fifteen minutes against liquid droplets and offer no protection whatsoever against bacteria (from the British Journal of Theatre Nursing). Essentially, they protect the wearer from ingesting splashes/sprays of blood and other infectious materials when operating on a patient, but that's all. Dust masks are effective against dust only, they don’t even seal around the face. Anyone selling these products as protection against flu should be reported to the authorities for mis-selling.
A mask by itself will not be enough, however. If you need to wear a mask, you need to protect yourself from the other main form of transmission - your hands. Outside the home, you will find it impossible to avoid touching surfaces, whatever you are doing. Pressing lift buttons, turning door handles, pushing shopping trollies...all these surfaces are covered in germs. Soon, you may unfortunately be able to add the Bird Flu virus to that unsavoury collection. Then, you eat a sandwich, chew your nail, rub your eyes, tap your teeth, pick up your child (who can't keep his fingers out of his mouth), kiss your partner...and so on. That's how we all get colds. But there is an easy way to break the cycle, fast. You can either wear thin latex gloves or use a hand sanitizer. Gloves are great for when you have to stay in a potentially contaminated environment for a while, or have small cuts or abrasions on the hand. They'll remind you not to put your fingers in your mouth and they're easy to dispose of.
Hand sanitizer is an extremely convenient and discreet way of killing nearly all the bacteria and viruses on your hands. The best kill 99.9% of all micro-organisms, including flu viruses and MRSA, within 15 seconds. What is more, it doesn't need water to rinse off or towel drying and leaves no sticky residue. You can buy bottle that are small enough to carry anywhere, making them ideal for the commuter or a child's lunchbox.
What if there’s an outbreak and the worst happens – you or someone you know contracts pandemic flu? Rest, isolation and, if necessary, hospitalisation are the keys. But what if the hospitals are swamped with the dead or dying? There’ll be no vaccine for the first few months, but Tamiflu has been shown to be effective as a treatment.
These are just a few ways we can prepare for and combat any pandemic.
If you want to have access to all the latest news, views, information and polls and need clear, objective advice on how to protect your family in case of a pandemic, including more information on any of the areas covered in the above article, please visit http://www.combatbirdflu.co.uk and see how you can combat bird flu.
