Factors affecting the operation of square tube market

Jan 9


Allice S Lee

Allice S Lee

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some factors affect the hollow section market


1 square tube association recently news,Factors affecting the operation of square tube market Articles stable macroeconomic growth, economic stimulus legislation is expected. Consumption, investment and net exports to China in August troika continues to improve, intensity index of the three major indexes recovered, industrial power consumption grew 12% year-on-year in August, is to speed up 4% last month; Railway freight volume in August rose 8.9% from a rectangular tubes, increase than last month increased by 4.4%, for a second consecutive month growth; Nearly 711.3 billion of new lending in August, year-on-year increase of 7.4 billion yuan a benign path, year-on-year increase of 11.4 billion yuan. CPI rose 2.6% in August to create value, rose 0.5% month-on-month; Producer prices fell 1.6% year on year, up 0.1% month-on-month. Statistical stabilizing economic growth to into production, but also indicates the Chinese laws and regulations again excitant expectations. Strained at the end of the third quarter near the Chinese market financing area biggest root cause, to spread the message of bank suspended mortgages, more recent downstream industry construction and steel market appeared the receivable pressure, bad for the improvement of the steel price. Money in October would improve the steel prices rebounded torque tube, rectangular tube but expected easing co., LTD.

2, torque tube with a steady growth of steel industry, the torque tube how to choose but difficult short-term demand has increased substantially. August 1 - China's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) rose 20.3% year-on-year, July 1-0.2% faster. 1 - traffic fixed asset investment grew 8.34% year-on-year in August, a 1 - fell 1.61% in July. August 1 - real estate development enterprise land acquisition area fell 9.1% year on year, a drop more than 1-7.7% in July to expand; August 1 - real estate area of housing starts rose 4% and growth is 1 - fell 4.4% in July, the new construction area of the building only in August of 150 million square meters, down 20.14% year on year, but monthly started since 2013 in the least. Since August land purchases dropped sharply in the area and the new construction area of depreciation of fixed number of year, or one of the reasons for building steel demand is difficult to clear the release. Since 2013 the local government fiscal income growth remain low, the central government to local government debt in the audit and the financial risk control, also has restricted the growth of investment in fixed assets.

China manufacturing PMI is 51.0% demand in August, up 0.7% than last month, for the top 2013, the effect of the torque tube in which the new orders index was 52.4%, 1.8% higher than last month is difficult to solve, for two consecutive months, its highest level for 16 months itself, the advantages of production index is 52.6% can come at the drop of a hat, the torque tube manufacturers than rose 0.2% last month. Industrial output real growth of 10.4% year-on-year in August, more than 0.7% in July to speed up the torque tube incentives, according to steel industry as a whole to continue to maintain rapid development, but some industry growth rate is lower than the overall data resources development, such as general equipment manufacturing growth 8.0% torque tube, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing growth 2.2% transactions, reaction associated with such steel demand growth is low.

3, new capacity release, steel supply pressure is bigger. In August, China's crude steel, pig iron and steel production 66.28 million tons, 59.92 million tons and 59.92 million tons respectively, year-on-year growth of 12.8%, 11.1% and 12.8% respectively. August crude steel nissan 2.1381 million tons, rose 1.2%. Such a high growth rate in 2013, having nothing to do with capacity continues to expand supervision mechanism, the China steel association: in the first half of China's production of blast furnace 15, including new blast furnace 13 ", according to 39, 2012 new blast furnace production of blast furnace total volume is about 61000 m after a little profit, production capacity of about 50 million tons. In 2013 China's production of new blast furnace will be around 20, total volume is 26000-27000 m between after, a total capacity of up to 25 million tons. Increasingly expansion of steel production capacity will release more and more steel production, the production because of the complexity of the statistics, or difficult to fully embodies in the published data. 18, the state council and the beijing-tianjin-hebei prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and the surrounding region signed the first batch of "liability form market rally," the late can earnestly implement, will affect the steel supply.

4, raw material market weakness, the cost of steel price support wanes. Into the imported ore price back slightly in September, the "double festival and the winter is coming" to reduce the influence of the torque tube capacity, Chinese steel mills to increase the purchase quantity improve inventory booster metallurgical coal tar market upside. As of 23 policy rescue the torque tube and 62% imported ore platts quotation index quotation prices $131.5 a tonne, difficult to solve than the $139 down $7.5 at the end of August; Secondary metallurgical coke in shanxi mainstream factory 1150 yuan per ton, a rise of $20 per ton in the end of August. It is predicted that the global iron ore supplies this year and next will be more than 8% of the supply growth, but the demand of iron ore and pig iron production growth is only about 3% of disadvantaged consolidation, 4 quarter of 2013 and 2014 1 quarter price, Rio tinto, BHP billiton and FM association of square tube and other major global mining new capacity of 60 million tons in the international market, in the fourth quarter of iron ore supply pressure is bigger.

5, steel social stock rally. As of September 20, China's main market five big Steel

torque tube steel varieties of social inventory of 14.849 million tons, an increase of 238300 tons, from the weekend from the same period in 2012 an increase of 822000 tons. Recently, China's major cities rebar inventories for a total of 6.0809 million tons more than last week, 110500 tons, compared with the same period in 2012 an increase of 475600 tons; Wire stock 1.4894 million tons of good news, last week, an increase of 85700 tons, compared with the same period in 2012 an increase of 216900 tons; Hot rolling stock is 4.0624 million tons, 11800 tons less than last week. Cold rolling stock for 1.642 million tons; The last week, an increase of 32000 tons; Medium plate stock 1.5743 million tons of effective coordination, an increase of 21800 tons from last week. In the case of demand release less than expected capital investment, the torque tube calculation formula of short supply of the rise of steel prices trend has formed a certain inhibition outshine rectangular tubes, confidence in the market has formed a certain hit.